About seven years from now, in 2032, an asteroid orbiting the Sun will fly so close to Earth that it has a little over 1 percent chance of impact. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, stands out as the only near-Earth asteroid out of the over 37,000 currently recognized to have an impact probability above 1 percent.
Scientists calculated this probability after the asteroid was reported on December 27, 2024 at a telescope in Chile belonging to the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), funded by NASA.
Around that time, 2024 YR4 had already made a close approach to our planet at 829,000 kilometers (about 515,116 miles) away, giving scientists a window to estimate when it will return and how likely it is to strike Earth. As of January 30, 2025, it has a 1.2 percent chance to impact Earth on December 22, 2032.
What Threat Does 2024 YR4 Pose?
This discovery is nothing to scoff at — it puts Asteroid 2024 YR4 at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a tool used to categorize potential Earth impact events with a scale ranging from 1 to 10.
Level 1 space objects — in the Green Zone, or category Normal — are common, observed multiple times a year and not considered a danger to the planet. Level 2 to 4 objects — in the Yellow Zone, or category “Meriting Attention by Astronomers” — present a marginal threat, but will most likely be brought down to a Level 0 (no hazard) when reassessed.
Only three objects have ever reached the Yellow Zone on the Torino Scale since its implementation in 1999. From February to May 2006, the asteroid 2004 VD17 reached Level 2 (but was lowered to 1 and then 0 in the following months). In December 2004, the asteroid 99942 Apophis stirred momentary panic as it reached Level 4, setting a record for the highest rating ever on the Torino Scale. After reassessments, though, it went all the way down to Level 0 within two years.
The last of the three, of course, is the recently-discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 at Level 3. If the asteroid (estimated to be between 130 and 330 feet wide) were to collide with Earth, it could lead to an air burst — exploding as it enters the atmosphere — or an impact crater. In either scenario, Asteroid 2024 YR4 would bring regional devastation to the Earth’s surface.
Impact Events Throughout History
Scattered moments in history have hinted at the grave nature of an impact event. This can be seen first-hand with sites like the 66-million-year-old Chicxulub crater in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico (thought to be the reason for mass dinosaur extinction) and the 50,000-year-old Meteor Crater in northern Arizona.
In more recent history, a mysterious explosion in rural Russia on June 30, 1908 turned out to be the result of an air burst from an asteroid; the Tunguska event, as it is now called, razed over 80 million trees and resulted in the deaths of 3 people, according to eyewitness accounts. This would have correlated to an 8 on the Torino scale.
Almost a century later, on February 15, 2013, a smaller air burst occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia, creating a massive shockwave that damaged several buildings and injured around 1,200 people (no deaths were reported).
Read More: The End of the Dinosaurs: What Was the End-Cretaceous Mass Extinction?
No Need to Panic
So, should you immediately start to freak out about Asteroid 2024 YR4? The answer, it seems, is a confident “no” as scientists have reassured. First of all, based on the current estimates, there is still a 99 percent chance it will pass by Earth.
But the main reason scientists believe people should keep their composure is because there is a good chance 2024 YR4 will be reclassified down to Level 0 when observed in the future, the same outcome for 2004 VD17 and 99942 Apophis.
The asteroid is now moving away from Earth and will be too far away to observe by April 2025. A few years later, scientists will have another chance to observe 2024 YR4 as it will return to the vicinity of Earth in June 2028.
Although a close eye will need to be kept on the asteroid when it returns, the people of Earth can breathe a temporary sigh of relief for now, knowing that the chance of impact will likely get slimmer with time.
Article Sources
Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:
The European Space Agency. ESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4
Center for Near Earth Object Studies. Torino Impact Hazard Scale
The Planetary Society. Asteroid Apophis: Will It Hit Earth? Your Questions Answered.
ScienceDirect. Tunguska eyewitness accounts, injuries, and casualties
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. High-fidelity simulation offers insight into 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor
The Planetary Society. Should you be worried about Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Jack Knudson is an assistant editor at Discover with a strong interest in environmental science and history. Before joining Discover in 2023, he studied journalism at the Scripps College of Communication at Ohio University and previously interned at Recycling Today magazine.
