What does it mean to talk about the risk of, say, being in an airplane crash or being struck by lightning? Calculations of risks are averages, so they have limited value to the individual. Airplanes, for instance, may be safe in terms of deaths per passenger mile, but that says little about the flight you’re about to board--one that entails several takeoffs and landings in bad weather, on a day following a night when the pilot may have had a few too many. To state a risk implies a foretelling, but this predictive power is misleading. Risk calculations almost always use historical data and mask the dubious assumption that the future will behave like the past.
With these caveats in mind, we combed the statistics of risky behavior to come up with a few numbers to ponder. In many cases, we had to knead the data into the format of risk--a ratio, less than one, of outcomes to possibilities, within a span of time--the number of people struck by lightning in a year divided by the number who could have been struck. All these figures pertain to the United States unless otherwise noted, but be forewarned: to take them literally is risky indeed.
AT HOME
Risk of falling behind in mortgage payments in the next 12 months:
1 in 24
Risk of foreclosure:
1 in 345
AT WORK
Risk of an adult (over 16) losing his or her job in the next year:
1 in 33
By profession:
doctor
1 in 116
lawyer
1 in 82
postal worker
1 in 41
accountant
1 in 40
bus driver
1 in 22
farmworker
1 in 8
Risk of dying in an accident on the job:
in 1934
390 in a million
in 1994
40 in a million
Occupations with high risk of injury:
truckers
coal miners
Occupations with low risk of injury:
stockbrokers
lawyers
insurance executives
IN THE FIELD
Risk of being injured in an elevator ride:
1 in 6 million
Risk of dying from:
earthquake or volcano
1 in 11 million
leaking gas
1 in 12 million
dog bite
1 in 20 million
drinking detergent
1 in 23 million
snakebite
1 in 36 million
The risk of contracting an infection during a stay at a U.S. hospital:
1 in 15
The risk of being infected with flesh-eating bacteria:
1 in 170,000
Risk of dying once infected:
1 in 4
Risk, for an African, of contracting the Ebola virus:
1 in 14 million
Risk of dying once infected:
2 in 3
Riskiest meals out (in Minnesota):
Minnesota may not be representative of the country as a whole, but no other state keeps such close tabs on who gets sick where. We arrived at these figures by estimating that each state resident goes to each type of restaurant once a year--which may not be the case. At any rate, here’s your yearly risk of being poisoned at the following:
italian restaurant
1 in 1,400,000
fast-food restaurant
1 in 440,000
business meeting
1 in 400,000
family gathering
1 in 388,000
delicatessen
1 in 240,000
mexican restaurant
1 in 136,000
THE STAGES OF RISK
Child killers
Children scrape their knees more often than adults, but they lead safer lives--12 children per 100,000 die from an accident yearly, about a third the rate for adults. This obviously should not deter parents from vigilance. But here’s how those childhood accidental deaths break down:
motor vehicle
46 percent
fires
15 percent
drowning
15 percent
falls
3 percent
choking
3 percent
guns
3 percent
poisoning
1 percent
other
13 percent
Teenage behavior
The risk that the average teenager will drink hard liquor:
daily
1 in 60
once or twice a month
1 in 6
The risk that a teenager will smoke marijuana:
daily
1 in 30
once or twice a month
1 in 17
The risk that a teenager will use cocaine:
daily
1 in 100
once or twice a month
1 in 140
The risk of an adolescent or young adult, aged 14 to 25, dying from:
car accident
1 in 3,500
murder
1 in 4,500
suicide
1 in 7,700
Adult behavior
Men are 2.3 times as likely to die in a car crash, 3.3 times as likely to poison themselves, and 7.4 times as likely to die from aids as women.
The price:
Since risk calculations are based on averages, they are often difficult to interpret. Here are some risky activities and the associated costs to life expectancy. The figures give a feeling for relative risks, but it would be silly to take them literally.
driving without a seat
belt on
6 seconds (per trip)
drinking a diet soft drink
9 seconds
smoking one cigarette
12 minutes
being born male
2,700 days
The risk of dying while giving birth:
in ireland
1 in 50,000
in the united states
1 in 12,500
in mali
1 in 50
Your peak years for dying from:
accident age
drowning, 0-5
fires, burns
car accident 15-25
poisoning 30-40
falls 80-90
ON THE ROAD,
IN THE AIR
Everybody knows that air travel is safer per passenger mile than car travel (more than 40 times safer on average). But that doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re safer flying on your next vacation than driving. If you live, say, in Lafayette, Indiana, here’s how the risk of death from traveling to two popular vacation spots stacks up:
driving 100 miles to chicago and back
1 in 588,000
flying 5,000 miles from chicago to rome and back
1 in 500,000
safest state for driving
Rhode Island
most dangerous
Wyoming
CRIME
In the next 12 months, your risk, on average, of being:
murdered
1 in 11,000
robbed
1 in 400
burglarized
1 in 50
The risk of somebody stealing:
your car
1 in 145
your bicycle
1 in 280
your wallet or purse
1 in 1,560
AND IF YOU REALLY NEED TO WORRY
The risk of your being wiped out (with nearly everybody else on Earth) next year by a catastrophic comet, meteor, or asteroid impact:
1 in 20,000
Your risk of being hit, directly, by a former celestial body:
1 in 150 trillion
