I've just done an entry at the Huffington Post discussing this subject. Short version: It's complicated (what else is new?), but we have every reason to be worried. Here's Dean over land, now weakened down to Category 3 but still maintaining some semblance of an eye for the moment:
P.S.: Welcome Andrew Sullivan readers...Sheril and I hope you'll stay a while here at "The Intersection"! And for a more in depth treatment of the subject matter, in addition to the link above see my book, Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warming.