Nine billion gallons of corn ethanol were produced in the United States in 2008, twice as much as in 2006. By the end of the year, though, dreams of a sustainable, domestically produced fuel that could help end our addiction to oil had deflated. The puncturing reasons came from all directions. Corn ethanol, aided by a generous subsidy from the federal government, has had the lead in alternative fuels, but recent studies reveal that it is much more costly, both economically and environmentally, than people had thought. Sharply rising grain prices underscored ethanol’s impact on household budgets and the global food supply. And then oil prices tumbled, making ethanol significantly less competitive in the energy marketplace.
Transportation fuel accounts for 28 percent of the country’s energy use. With oil reserves headed inexorably for depletion, shortages and more wild price swings (like last summer’s $147-a-barrel spike) very likely loom ahead. The vexing question—surely one of the greatest scientific and technological challenges of our time—is what will take petroleum’s place.
There are other biofuels, but they have drawbacks too. The first U.S. facility for converting algae into fuel is expected to open soon in Rio Hondo, Texas, but it will take decades to achieve significant production. Cellulosic ethanol can be derived from inedible crops like switchgrass, but the technology is still largely confined to the laboratory. And many types of biofuel require vast amounts of land, leaving less acreage available for food crops.
