Fossil Fuel Panel

FOSSIL FUELS IN 2050 QUESTIONS FROM ONLINE VISITORS


1.    By 2050, most of the fossil fuels were merely be a memory - and a toxic residue. Peak Oil is here, now. Natural gas peaked in the US in 1973. Peak Coal is not even that far off, perhaps 2020 to 2025. By 2050, there will still be some fossil fuel extraction, but much less than we have now. We'd better relocalize agriculture so people dependent on long distance transport of food will still be able to eat.

Shell believes that by the year 2050 fossil fuels will continue to be part of the overall energy picture. However, how we extract, produce and use them will most likely be significantly different than today. It’s important to note, though especially with respect to your comment about Peak Oil, while we recognize that the core theory presented in the material, specifically that hydrocarbons are, at some point, a finite resource, is valid; the data and conclusions in that paper are now more than 50 years old.

The author, Shell scientist King Hubbert, did not consider pricing incentives, new basins, globalization, deep water or many other revolutions in technology and transport. He also ignored the enormous resources locked up in heavy oils, oil sands and oil shales.

The International Energy Administration estimates at least three trillion barrels conventional oil and trillions more in unconventional resources remain to be produced. Technology and innovation in our industry have allowed us to tap conventional oil and natural gas resources that will continue to be part of our Energy portfolio for the foreseeable future while we grow other viable unconventional and renewable energy resources.

2.    I heard that in 2050 there will be completely used up of all the world’s fossil fuel .How can we live without this? We depend sorely on renewable energy which is very limited production and technology in the present situation. Is there any programs for other alternative ways?

Shell believes that by the year 2050 fossil fuels will continue to be part of the overall energy picture. However, how we extract, produce and use them will most likely be significantly different than today. It’s important to note, though especially with respect to your comment about Peak Oil, while we recognize that the core theory presented in the material, specifically that hydrocarbons are, at some point, a finite resource, is valid; the data and conclusions in that paper are now more than 50 years old.

The author, Shell scientist King Hubbert, did not consider pricing incentives, new basins, globalization, deep water or many other revolutions in technology and transport. He also ignored the enormous resources locked up in heavy oils, oil sands and oil shales.

The International Energy Administration estimates at least three trillion barrels conventional oil and trillions more in unconventional resources remain to be produced. Technology and innovation in our industry have allowed us to tap conventional oil and natural gas resources that will continue to be part of our Energy portfolio for the foreseeable future while we grow other viable unconventional and renewable energy resources.

3.    Will the contraction of the world economy have any significant affect on outcomes predicted with Peak Oil advocates?

Economic slowdowns and the contractions in production, supply and demand that go along with them are not new. In the short term, oil consumption is increasing more slowly due to the fallout from the credit crisis but demand is expected to pick up, especially in developing countries, as the global economy finds its legs according to the International Energy Agency.

Shell as a company has been aware of and planned for Peak Oil. It was, in fact, a Shell scientist, King Hubbard, who coined the term. Our strategy takes into consideration that hydrocarbons are a finite resource but allows for technological innovations granting us access to previously unreachable reserves. Our Perdido Development, in an isolated section of the Gulf of Mexico, has set a record for drilling the world’s deepest well. In Canada, we are using new technologies to access and refine oil sands. In Colorado we are increasing our research into how to access oil shale reserves in an environmentally friendly and cost effective manner. Easy to access hydrocarbons are an increasingly rare commodity. Oil, however, will remain an energy source in the future but its prominence as a resource as well as the way it’s extracted will be markedly different from today.

Peak Oil advocates fail to understand two things. First, the creative power unleashed by the free-market system will always allow for new and innovative ways to meet demand. This is true in the energy sector as it is everywhere. Second, Shell, and other energy companies, has already begun to diversify our resource portfolios so that hydrocarbons will begin to play a smaller role in the coming years. 

4.    What is panelists opinion about oil companies's real interests in the emerging scenario of dwindling oil and global warming due to greenhouse gases? Will they support efforts that help reduce or eliminate oil use, oppose them (while pretending to support them) or neither? If you are a startup company with innovation in increasing energy efficiency (less requirements of fossil fuels), is it a good idea to ask oil companies for investment funds or is it a bad idea? What is it that oil companies are looking to do over next 10 to 30 years?

Shell remains determined to work towards a responsible energy future. For instance, we are continuing to invest in and research Carbon Capture and Storage technology which will allow us to store CO2 emissions from power plants and other industrial facilities underground. We are also continuing to diversify our energy portfolio to include alternative resources like wind, biofuels, and natural gas. We are significantly raising production of cleaner-burning natural gas, which, when used to generate electricity, natural gas emits 50% less CO2 than coal. These are tangible things Shell is doing today to help mitigate climate change.

Shell was the first international oil company to recognize the threat of climate change and call for action. We are working with policy makers to achieve a secure, affordable and environmentally responsible energy future for our nation.  This is the challenge of our times.  To meet this challenge, we need far-sighted legislation that brings together the best interests of society and industry in order that we might work together, not just in the coming months, but for the decades to follow.  This includes legislation that creates an environment that will allow continued investments in energy supplies and the efficient deployment of low-carbon technologies to address greenhouse emissions.  The world needs diverse energy supplies, including oil sands and bio-fuels.  With energy demand expected to grow, we should focus on legislative efforts that keeps open all supply options while respecting the need for proper policy frameworks and incentives.  We believe that a federal cap-and-trade program that sets mandatory caps on emissions - along with a price on carbon - is the most effective way to slow, stop and reverse greenhouse gas emissions.

The best thing about a market based, private economic system is that it has the ability to unleash the power of the best and brightest towards solving the world’s energy challenge. We applaud the efforts of all startup companies who are working towards solving the energy challenge through the research and development of renewables or augmenting existing technologies to become more sustainable. Shell has demonstrated through many partnerships a dedication to finding companies and individuals that we can work with to build a more secure energy future. It is never a bad idea to seek startup capital from multiple, diverse sources – that is just smart business. It is important, however, to go through the proper channels and protocols when attempting to build a business relationship.

5.    What would happen if the world ran out of oil? Do you distinguished people, have a plan for the future? Will it be the end of the cars running on gasoline? Do we have another way of getting fuel? If that happens what will we do with our cars made out of fuel? Should we stop buying cars?

This question really needs to be broken down into two parts; 1) what will happen if the world runs out of oil and what is Shell doing to prepare for it and 2) How will this impact the automobile industry and consumers,
First, we believe that the world will not run out of oil by 2050 because our goal is to diversify the global energy mix, without dismissing any options. We intend to increase supplies of natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, continue to invest in and offer coal and biomass gasification technology and expand our alternative energy portfolio including wind and biofuels. We, in particular, are significantly raising production of cleaner-burning natural gas, which, when used to generate electricity, emits 50% less CO2 than coal. By 2012 more than half Shell’s production will be natural gas. It can help build a bridge to a future when renewable energy comes of age.
It is important to reiterate that there is no silver bullet for solving the energy challenge but the future does not have to be a Hobson’s choice. Forty years from now oil will still be an energy source for the planet but the demand for it will be offset by cleaner burning hydrocarbons, which are more abundant, as well as renewable energy sources. The best part is that this energy transition is already starting to happen. 
Second, we are at the beginning of a fundamental shift in our energy system, one that also requires a change in our collective ideas on the role energy plays in our lives. More than a billion new vehicles will come on to the world's roads in the first half of this century -- that's more than double the number today. They will be powered by all manner of energy: petrol, diesel, electricity, biofuels, natural gas, and hydrogen. Consumers will decide which type of fuel they want to buy and Shell will embrace that decision. While we cannot comment on or speculate about the strategies major automobile manufacturers have, we can say that Shell is positioned well for this inevitable transition and will help drive change by providing a diverse portfolio of energy sources for consumers and businesses to choose from.

6.    Since oil companies have not been allowed to search "everywhere" how can we know how much oil is really out there?

This is an excellent question and cuts right to the core of an important issue facing all energy companies – access. Exploring for hydrocarbons in new areas is a contentious issue. There are those who simply want to say “no”, internationally and domestically, to producing new oil and gas reserves. This notion contradicts the fact that energy demands are growing. At Shell, we believe that the question “how we can meet the world’s growing energy needs” should de discussed before any a final answer is given.

Take Alaska for example:  At one time we thought that the waters of the Chukchi, northwest of Alaska’s landmass held 30 billion cubic feet of natural gas.  Today, the U.S. Geologic Survey now finds it holds more than anyone thought – 1.6 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered natural gas, 4 percent of the global conventional resources. We at Shell have the means and the technological know-how to produce from the Chukchi and do so in an environmentally sensitive manner.

It is important that governments remain open to the continued exploration and production of hydrocarbons. The impressive technological innovations coming out of companies like Shell is drastically altering the way oil and gas is extracted. We can now access reserves that were previously thought to be inaccessible and do so in a manner that mitigates environmental impact.

7.    I fully expect all of the fuels of today to exist in 2050 - for if we had followed David Sarnoff's path to the future he predicted in the 1950's, all cars should have been nuclear powered by 1980.  As long as we are thrilled by the likes of a Bugatti Veyron, there is no necessity to alter anything - except generate more electricity for electricity's sake [make it cheaper], use the Sun as much as possible, and finally, DRILL baby DRILL!!!!

While this is a statement rather than a question it certainly merits consideration. By 2050 there will be 9 billion people on earth – more people equal more energy demand. It is that simple. Our goal is to meet that future demand by diversifying our energy portfolio, but we, and all business for that matter, cannot do it alone.

We are at the beginning of a fundamental shift in our energy system, one that also requires a sea change in our collective weltanschauung. The public must alter their energy consumption habits to live a more sustainable life. A growing desire for driving that is fun and environmentally friendly shows this is already underway and many companies are beginning to tap into this. Tesla Motors, based in California, is an example. Tesla developed an electric roadster that can go from 0 – 60 mph in slightly less than 4 seconds and can travel 244 miles on one charge. This goes to show that it is possible to have our cake and eat it too.

Building a new energy future will not be easy but the ends will certainly justify the means. Consumers, thanks to a great proliferation of energy types, from cleaner fossil fuels to renewables such as biofuels, wind and solar, to nuclear and hydrogen, will continue to see more energy efficient products ranging from aeroplanes to cars to fridges emerge. Shell is positioned well for this inevitable transition and will help drive it.

8.    Would diesel infused with powered coal be a viable fuel?

More than one billion new cars will be on the road by 2050 leaving a lot of room for many diverse fuel sources. Customers will ultimately decide which fuel they buy based on affordability and performance. Diesel infused with powdered coal cannot be ruled out as a future fuel source but at this stage it is too early to speculate about its viability.

9.    I heard that in 2050 there will be completely used up of all the world’s fossil fuel .How can we live without this? We depend sorely on renewable energy which is very limited production and technology in the present situation. Is there any programs for other alternative ways?

We believe that the world will not run out of oil by 2050 because our goal is to diversify the global energy mix. We intend to increase supplies of natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, we continue to invest in and offer coal and biomass gasification technology and we are continuing to invest in alternative energy sources like wind, solar and biofuels. We, notably, are significantly raising production of cleaner-burning natural gas which, when used to generate electricity, emits 50% less CO2 than coal. By 2012 more than half Shell’s production will be natural gas. It can help build a bridge to a future when renewable energy comes of age.

Historically, it takes roughly a quarter of a century for any new energy source to gain a one percent market share. This was true of liquefied natural gas and biofuels are just beginning to reach that mark. The trick is not to quickly shut out all the traditional energy sources we use today but smartly utilize them as we continue to invest in and develop alternative energy sources.

It is important to reiterate that there is no silver bullet for solving the energy challenge but this does not have to be a Hobson’s choice either. Forty years from now oil will still be an energy source for the planet but the demand for it will be offset by cleaner burning hydrocarbons, which are more abundant, as well as renewable energy sources. The best part is that this energy transition is already starting to happen. 

 

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