At these sites, Hoecker has embedded sensors in the ground to collect data
on soil temperature and moisture, while meteorological stations at each
site collect data on air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. Camera
traps keep an eye out for curious critters that may interfere with the
results.
“[It’s been surprising] just how warm it can get right below the soil
surface,” Hoecker says, noting soil temperature is often much hotter than
the air temperature and can reach over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
The results of this study could help scientists understand the mechanisms
and then anticipate how different trees will respond to different
conditions.
Forests From the Ground Up
Eventually the seed dispersal and growth data, along with other data
points, will be plugged into an “individual-based forest process model”
developed by one of Turner’s colleagues, Austrian ecologist Rupert Seidl.
The model, called iLand, is designed to address the changing dynamic of
forests, and can be modified for use in different forest types. The
Yellowstone data is used to examine how species such as lodgepole pine and
Douglas fir will fare and regenerate under different scenarios, including
ranges of climate, fire frequency and distance from seed sources.
“An important aspect about his model is that it’s basically building from
the ground up,” Turner explains, noting that the model is based on tree
physiology and relies on daily data about solar radiation, precipitation
and temperature.
“When we’re looking out into this century where the conditions are really
different than anything we’ve seen in our historical record, we can’t
assume that relationships that were represented maybe 40 years ago are
going to hold in the future,” Turner says.
While Turner and her collaborators are working to develop new tools to
examine fire, she reflects on the fundamental changes at hand. “I think
that the rules of the game are changing now in the sense [that] the
recovery that we see in the future may not be the same as we have seen in
the past,” Turner says. “Our systems are often more resilient than we
think, but I also think we might be pushing them to breaking points.”
[This article originally appeared in print as "Burn Notice"]