FROM THE MARCH 2007 ISSUE

Fuzzy Math: Impartial Jury

A bad jury or judge? Might as well flip a coin.

By Alex Stone|Monday, April 02, 2007
RELATED TAGS: MATH

Let’s say you’ve been put on trial—you’re innocent, of course—and thata perverse exercise in probability theory will decide your fate.

Each juror will choose whether or not to vote in favor of your conviction byflipping a coin: If it lands on heads, then it’s off with yours; if thecoin lands on tails, then you are spared. But you have a choice. Youcan either select a three-person jury composed entirely of coinflippers—best out of three determines the verdict—or you can have thejudge flip a single coin for the decision. Which scenario should yourlegal counsel request?

The truth is that it’s a trick question, sincecomparing the probabilities reveals that your odds of winning are astraight fifty-fifty shot in either case! You may as well let the judgedecide and save three people from jury duty.


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